Did Verstappen already know? Why Mercedes couldn’t sign him for 2026

 The F1 paddock buzzed with speculation that Mercedes might lure Max Verstappen away from Red Bull for 2026. Does this fresh insight reveal why the deal was never closed?

Max Verstappen's ultimate goal in F1 is to win races and championships. This year, it's rather unlikely the Dutchman will be able to continue stretching his title-winning spell for another season, as Red Bull has fallen far behind the current dominant team, McLaren.

As such, and along with the reported unrest at Red Bull under Christian Horner's leadership, rumours surfaced surrounding Verstappen's potential departure from the Austrian team, with a potential destination found in Mercedes.

The deal, however, was never closed between the reigning F1 champion and the German team.

Max Verstappen in Hungary - Red Bull Contentpool

Could this be why Mercedes failed to poach Verstappen from Red Bull? 

In an interview with Auto Motor und Sport, FIA single-seater technical director Nikolas Tombazis explained why the 2026 Formula 1 engine regulations are unlikely to allow any one manufacturer to enjoy the kind of dominance Mercedes achieved in 2014.

“I don’t think we will see such a great superiority of an engine manufacturer as in 2014,” Tombazis said.

Back then, the power unit became much more complex compared to its predecessor. This time, we are doing the opposite, simplifying the technology.

"Originally, we wanted to go further, but we didn’t get it through. The new engines are simpler. They no longer have MGU-H, and there are stricter limits in some areas.”

The risks engine manufacturers face ahead of 2026

While the changes aim to level the playing field, they also introduce risks, Tombazis explained.

“On the other hand, we have new additions among the manufacturers, and of course there is always the risk that one of them will miss the mark at the first try despite the budget limit, despite the limited test bench time.”

In other words, even a powerhouse team like Mercedes cannot guarantee having the outright best power unit in 2026.

With performance caps, simplified hybrid systems, and tighter restrictions, the spread between the top and bottom is expected to shrink, making a long-term championship bet far less certain for a driver such as Verstappen to even consider moving away from the team he has professed to love.